Valdez, AK November Climate Extremes

With my first ski-less October ever behind me I look up at the mountains tops and wonder when our first snows will break the back of fall. About 8″ has fallen mostly above 5000′ over the past few weeks and is now weathered. October was incredibly dry and temps have been well above normal. Lows continue to get bumped to the south and northerly flow has dominated the Chugach, at least around Valdez, for the past month. In the short term there is not much out there to be optimistic about . Models indicate  light precipitation moving in next Tuesday but they also show northerly flow during that period and beyond, so little snow is expected to reach sea level and inland  We need about two feet of snow to get the skins wet at the road level, though some glacier surfaces might become skiable by next mid-week and entice some to hike to DOT Glacier.

Of course there’s the Sugarloaf Rule. Permanent snow on Sugarloaf means permanent snow in Valdez in one month, which would be about the first week of December if you like myths.

Meanwhile I geeked out and came up with some interesting November snowfall records and identified some categories that may interest you. There are some recent trends that may help look to this season, but one thing about November it has provided some hefty snowfalls to get the season going. So uncross your ski tips and cross your fingers.

November Record 1985-2015(inches)

Most Snow

1994 – 108.2

2013 – 80.4

1989 – 76.1

1993 – 75.6

2005 – 74.4

Least Snow

2014 – 0.00

2015 – 1.20

2010 – 3.70

1995 – 5.80

2002 – 7.10

Most Precipitation

2002 – 15.06

1992 – 14.25

2013 – 10.57

2004 – 9.56

1993 – 8.64

Least Precipitation

2014  – 0.00

2015 – 0.06

1990  – 0.97

2012 – 1.03

1995 – 1.41

Warmest (Average Max Daily Temp)

2015 – 42.8

2002 –  40.8

2014 – 39.9

2010 – 37.1

2007-   36.5

Other November notables…

1930 – 110.3 / 13.17we

1976  – 44/ 20.59we

Most Snow in 24 hours – 1994 25.7*

Coldest Day –  2006 0F*

Warmest Day – 2016/2002 50F*

My first November in Valdez was 1979 – 31/13.82 we

* date of month unknown